Analytics: Health Impacts
Air pollution has a range of serious consequences for health. We have used monitoring data from Trim to model the health effects of air pollution over one year. This has allowed us to estimate how many cases of specific diseases were caused by pollution across Trim in that year. We have modelled three categories of outcome: incidence (the number of cases that occur in the year we're modelling), prevalence (the number of existing cases in that year, whether or not they started then) and mortality (the number of people who passed away due to a condition caused or exacerbated by air pollution).
We have modelled outcomes for the following diseases, selected for their close and well-understood relationships with air pollution:
Asthma - Incidence
Diabetes (type II) - Incidence
Stroke - Incidence
Lung cancer - Incidence
Cardiovascular disease - Prevalence, mortality
Respiratory disease - Mortality
Note that these results are estimates based on the best available data. Data source information is below.
Incidence Summary
| Pollutant | Disease | Total Attributable Incidence |
|---|---|---|
| NO₂ | Asthma | 6.31 |
| PM 2.5 | Diabetes | 3.75 |
| PM 2.5 | Stroke | 3.26 |
| PM 2.5 | Lung Cancer | 0.45 |
Incidence Health Costs
| Disease | No. of cases | Per Case Weighted Average (€) | Per Case Max (€) | Per Case Min (€) | All Cases Weighted Average (€) | All Cases Max (€) | All Cases Min (€) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetes | 3.75 | 24,066 | 69,505 | 13,495 | 90,221 | 260,568 | 50,591 |
| Stroke | 3.26 | 10,393 | 33,617 | 2,391 | 33,906 | 109,674 | 7,800 |
| Asthma | 6.31 | 5,582 | 8,556 | 4,567 | 35,219 | 53,983 | 28,815 |
A table of the estimated costs per incidence case and costs for all incidence cases, for asthma, stroke, and diabetes.
Annual Ongoing Health Costs
| Disease | Annual healthcare cost per case (€) | Annual healthcare cost for all cases (€) | Annual productivity loss cost per case (€) | Annual productivity loss cost for all cases (€) | Total Annual cost for all cases (€) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetes | 4,772 | 17,889 | 716 | 2,684 | 20,574 |
| Stroke | 10,661 | 34,781 | 3,970 | 12,951 | 47,733 |
| Asthma | 1,139 | 7,186 | 587 | 3,703 | 10,890 |
The annual costs for each disease are modelled based on four areas of care: primary care, secondary care, medications, and social care. It is the estimated cost of each disease for each year going forward after the initial diagnosis.
Incidence Costs of Diabetes and Complications
| Disease | Average Incidence and Complications Cost (€) | Max Incidence and Complications Cost (€) | Min Incidence and Complications Cost (€) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetes | 93,069 | 268,167 | 52,545 |
The est. cost of incident cases of diabetes plus the est. cost of diabetes complications (using the estimated prevalence of macro and microvascular diabetic complications amongst the population of diabetic people).
Mortality Summary
| Pollutant | Disease | Total Attributable Premature Deaths |
|---|---|---|
| PM 2.5 | All Cardiovascular Disease | 1.8 |
| PM 2.5 | Stroke | 0.38 |
| PM 2.5 | Ischaemic Heart Disease | 1.08 |
| PM 2.5 | Other Cardiovascular Disease | 0.17 |
| NO₂ | Cardiovascular Disease | 2.39 |
| NO₂ | Respiratory Disease | 0.25 |
Prevalence Summary
| Pollutant | Disease | Total Attributable Incidence |
|---|---|---|
| PM 2.5 | Cardiovascular Disease | 51.05 |
| NO₂ | Cardiovascular Disease | 53.15 |
Diabetes incidence (PM2.5)
Stroke incidence (PM2.5)
Lung cancer incidence (PM2.5)
Asthma incidence (NO₂)
Cardiovascular disease prevalence (PM2.5 and NO₂)
Cardiovascular disease mortality (PM2.5 and NO₂)
Cardiovascular Mortality by disease type (PM2.5)
Respiratory and cardiovascular mortality (NO₂)
Data sources
Population and demographic data
We have modelled outcomes for the whole of Trim (urban and rural). We have used age-banded census data from 2016 to produce these analyses. We will amend this when local census 2022 data is available later this year.
Pollution data
We have used Zephyr data to produce these analyses. In order to estimate annual means (necessary for calculating annual effects on air pollution), we have applied trend data from the Navan reference monitor to our existing Trim air quality data.
Health data
Data on asthma incidence is licensed from the IHME and used with permission. Data on diabetes incidence and CVD prevalence is estimated from Scottish data available under Crown Copyright. Mortality data is based on figures from 2019 collated by the Central Statistics Office. Data on the relationships between ambient air pollution concentrations and health outcomes has been extracted from the scientific literature, with an emphasis on recent meta-analyses and reviews where available.
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